Американский фондовый рынок.

Хоть и зарекался в <b>GM</b> не лезть, но не удержался, влез в лонги на 3.41 с доливкой на 3.54. Закрылся по 3.80, хотя может и рано...ну да Бог с ним. ^drink

 

Мудрят че-то, мудрят... Уж определились бы - апокалипсеЦ или на север!.. Ничего нового опять не произошло.

На прошлой неделе остопили мои JRCC, CAT - оба по новостям... Вот в чем обида...

PCAR вышел действительно вниз. И это было круто, жаль внутри дня)))

15.12




ВЫХОД ОТЧЕТНОСТЕЙ НА ТЕКУЩЕЙ НЕДЕЛЕ (Полный список выходящих отчетов, выплаты дивидендов и пр. можно найти здесь: <span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://earnings.com)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://earnings.com)</a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)

BMO - before market open
AMC - after market close

16.12

BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. Q3 2009 Best Buy Co., Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.25 n/a $ 0.53 16-Dec
ADBE Adobe Systems Q4 2008 Adobe Systems Earnings Release $ 0.58 n/a $ 0.49 16-Dec
GS Goldman Sachs Q4 2008 Goldman Sachs Earnings Release -$ 3.50 n/a $ 7.01 16-Dec BMO
ASUR Asure Software Q1 2009 Asure Software Earnings Release n/a n/a -$ 0.03 16-Dec BMO
RTK Rentech Incorporated Q4 2008 Rentech Incorporated Earnings Release -$ 0.05 n/a -$ 0.36 16-Dec
PAY VeriFone Holdings, Inc. Q4 2008 VeriFone Holdings, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.26 n/a $ 0.13 16-Dec

17.12

NKE Nike Q2 2009 Nike Earnings Release $ 0.79 n/a $ 0.71 17-Dec 4:15 PM
CAG ConAgra Foods Q2 2009 ConAgra Foods Earnings Release $ 0.38 n/a $ 0.50 17-Dec BMO
MS Morgan Stanley Q4 2008 Morgan Stanley Earnings Release -$ 0.37 n/a -$ 3.61 17-Dec
PAYX Paychex Q2 2009 Paychex Earnings Release $ 0.40 n/a $ 0.40 17-Dec AMC
GIS General Mills, Inc. Q2 2009 General Mills, Inc. Earnings Release $ 1.23 n/a $ 1.14 17-Dec BMO
CMC Commercial Metals Company Q1 2009 Commercial Metals Company Earnings Release $ 0.34 n/a $ 0.57 17-Dec

18.12

CCL Carnival Corporation & Carnival plc Q4 2008 Carnival Corporation & plc Earnings Release $ 0.40 n/a $ 0.44 18-Dec
DFS Discover Financial Services Q4 2008 Discover Financial Services Earnings Release $ 0.14 n/a $ 0.40 18-Dec BMO
ORCL Oracle Q2 2009 Oracle Earnings Release $ 0.34 n/a $ 0.31 18-Dec AMC
LEN Lennar Corporation Q4 2008 Lennar Corporation Earnings Release -$ 0.79 n/a -$ 7.92 18-Dec BMO
FDX FedEx Q2 2009 FedEx Earnings Release $ 1.57 n/a $ 1.54 18-Dec BMO
CMED China Medical Technologies, Inc. Q2 2008 China Medical Technologies, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.51 n/a $ 0.38 18-Dec BMO

19.12

JBL Jabil Circuit, Inc. Q1 2009 Jabil Circuit, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.32 n/a $ 0.36 19-Dec BMO
DRI Darden Restaurants Q2 2009 Darden Restaurants Earnings Release $ 0.31 n/a $ 0.39 19-Dec
CTAS Cintas Corporation Q2 2009 Cintas Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.54 n/a $ 0.53 19-Dec BMO
KMX CarMax, Inc Q3 2009 CarMax, Inc Earnings Release $ 0.02 n/a $ 0.14 19-Dec BMO
DKAM DRINKS AMERICAS HLDGS LTD Q2 2009 DRINKS AMERICAS HLDGS LTD Earnings Release n/a n/a n/a 19-Dec

 

На север...наверна. :unsure:

 

<b>www.guardian.co.uk</b>

<b>Bankruptcy option looms as Bush weighs auto aidReuters, Thursday December 18 2008 </b>

* US considers managed auto bankruptcy
* GM denies holding merger talks with Chrysler
* Japan auto sales seen at 31-year low in 2009
* 2009 U.S. sales seen at 12.5 mln, lowest in 18 yrs
* GM shares lose 16.3 pct, Ford stock off 9.6 pct
By Poornima Gupta and John Crawley
DETROIT/WASHINGTON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The White House said on Thursday it is considering the option of an "orderly" bankruptcy as it weighs aid for U.S. automakers and Chrysler LLC prepared to shut down all of its 30 factories for a month.
The move by the Bush administration injected a new note of uncertainty into the politically charged discussions of a bailout for the U.S. automakers that is reaching a conclusion after more than a month of wrangling.
Both Chrysler and General Motors Corp denied earlier on Thursday that merger talks between the two had restarted.
Also, the outlook for a near-term recovery in global auto demand dimmed as Europe saw a record fall in truck sales and an industry group warned that Japanese car sales likely to be the worst in at least three decades next year.
Reflecting the pressure, Toyota Motor Corp may report its first-ever operating loss in the current year ending March 31 as a result of plunging sales and the strength of the yen, the first such loss since it began releasing results in 1940, the Nikkei financial daily reported. ID:nN18409780
U.S. President George W. Bush is weighing the option of a managed bankruptcy in the U.S. auto industry as it works out details of an aid package that is close to being finalized, the White House said.
In an interview with the American Enterprise Institute, Bush said he was worried about the impact a "disorderly bankruptcy" might have on financial markets and whether or not U.S. automakers can become viable. ID:nN18393530
The news came as Chrysler geared up to shut down all its factories for a month, starting Friday, as it struggles to survive a deep plunge in vehicle demand that has put a massive strain on its liquidity.
Chrysler, which is seen as the weakest of the three Detroit automakers, has said it needs federal aid to survive into 2009. GM has also requested billions of dollars in immediate help to forestall potential failure.
Ford Motor Co wants a line of credit rather than immediate cash, to guard against a further downturn in its business or a failure of a competitor.
The White House, which has repeatedly said it wants to help only those automakers that have long-term viability, said the administration was taking into account Chrysler's decision on shutdowns.
There is an "orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "That would be one of the options. I'm not saying that is necessarily what would be announced."
In a prepackaged or managed bankruptcy, concessions and financing are arranged before a court filing to accelerate and simplify a restructuring.
Meanwhile, both Chrysler and GM said they had not reopened merger talks with Chrysler's parent Cerberus Capital Management , denying a report in The Wall Street Journal that talks had been revived. ID:nN18381731
GM and Cerberus suspended talks in late October. GM had pushed for up to $10 billion in U.S. government aid to support an acquisition of Chrysler, according to sources with knowledge of the talks. The discussions were dropped when no financing was immediately available.
GM's troubles also deepened as its former finance arm GMAC, which funds most of GM dealers' wholesale vehicle purchases, appealed to existing bondholders to participate in a debt exchange program that would facilitate the company achieving bank holding company status.
GMAC has said being a bank holding company is the only option for its viability and and has extended the deadline for its debt exchange offer to Dec. 26.
Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson said that if GMAC were to fail. GM would potentially need an additional $9 billion to $13 billion to support wholesale vehicle purchases by its dealers.
GM shares closed down 71 cents, or 16.3 percent, at $3.66 in regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ford shares ended down 30 cents, or 9.6 percent, at $2.84, also on the NYSE.
GLOBAL WOES
Globally, various governments were considering aid for distressed automakers.
The European Commission, as well as individual governments, have pledged support packages to help their carmakers, with France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, saying on Monday he would consider new forms of assistance, such as loans or guarantees.
The Russian government will also discuss support for its struggling domestic car producers on Friday.
In Japan, the head of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) said that it was very difficult to gauge where the bottom is for the global car market.
Announcing its outlook for 2009, the industry group said it expected Japanese demand for new vehicles to fall below 5 million for the first time in 31 years -- the fifth straight year of decline. ID:nTKB003166
For a graphic on Japanese auto demand, click: <span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/JP_AUTS1208.gif" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/JP_AUTS1208.gif</a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>
JAMA also predicted U.S. light vehicle demand to fall around 6 percent, to 12.5 million units next year, the lowest level since 1991, from an estimated 13.3 million in 2008.
Goldman Sachs also issued a gloomy forecast, cutting its global automotive production and sales growth forecasts to 7 percent from 9 percent for 2009. ID:nBNG117548
The warnings came after Honda Motor Co forecast on Wednesday a six-month operating loss of 190 billion yen ($2.2 billion), sending its shares down 3.5 percent on Thursday. ID:nTKB003166
Adding to the sector's woes, November European truck sales, seen as a barometer for the economy, fell a record 30.8 percent, industry association ACEA said on Thursday. ID:nLI307925
Meanwhile, Europe's largest carmaker, Volkswagen AG, was expected to hold a meeting with managers later on Thursday. Local media said the company could discuss details of growth targets.
In the United Kingdom, business minister Peter Mandelson said late on Wednesday the government was in talks with the owners of Jaguar Land Rover but would not support or run failed companies.
"I don't have an open cheque book," he said. ID:nLH601233 ($1 = 87.73 yen) (Writing by Poornima Gupta. Additional reporting by Soyoung Kim, Jui Chakravorty, Jeremy Pelofsky, Kevin Krolicki, Matt Falloon and Amiteshwar Singh; Editing by Patrick Fitzgibbons, Matthew Lewis and Tim Dobbyn)

-----------------------------------------

Шорт по MBI. Подробнее позже.

 

Gof, скажите, пожалуйста, не располагаете ли вы информации, что там за манипуляции происходят на валютном рынке? Иначае как-то назвать это штатным режимом тяжело (EUR/USD, USD/CHF).
Или это часть плана Полсона о нестандартных мерах борьбы с кризисом и хоть какое-то увеличение капиталов банков после потерь и списаний по правилу "Разори Соседа"

 

Уважаемый alexhorn! Как это ни смешно, будучи модратором раздела портала Onix, посвященного валюте и форексу, я очень и очень далек от этих областей финансового мира... Я мало что понимаю, и не имею морального права рассуждать об этом... Задайте вопрос в соответствующих разделах форума. Я на 100% уверен, что Вам не только дадут развернутый ответ, но и затеят дискуссию...
Что касается второй части вопроса - я не вкурсе, к сожалению... :unsure:

 

CEF short от района 10,6 - ничего
VMW short от района 25,5 - пока удачно (+13%)
PAYX short от района 26,6 - ничего
PCAR short от района 25,25 - пока неудачно (-8%)
TXT short от района 13,7 - пока неудачно (-10,5%)
SPLS short от района 16,25 - пока неудачно (-9%)
USMO long от района 10,75 - ничего
MBI short от района 5,5 - удачно (+17,5%)

MBI

<span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://radikal.ru/F/s51.radikal.ru/i134/0812/dd/5b08351c5ab9.png.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><img src="http://s51.radikal.ru/i134/0812/dd/5b08351c5ab9t.jpg" border="0" class="linked-image" /></a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

S - что вышло после 7-го дек., 4-х часовик, продлил линии.

<span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://radikal.ru/F/s58.radikal.ru/i160/0812/7a/65b69cf0283d.png.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><img src="http://s58.radikal.ru/i160/0812/7a/65b69cf0283dt.jpg" border="0" class="linked-image" /></a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

Видится неплохая возможность шорта DRC при пробитии 15,4, HOG при пробитии 14,73

22.12



ВЫХОД ОТЧЕТНОСТЕЙ НА ТЕКУЩЕЙ НЕДЕЛЕ (Полный список выходящих отчетов, выплаты дивидендов и пр. можно найти здесь: <span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://earnings.com)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://earnings.com)</a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)

BMO - before market open
AMC - after market close

23.12

MU Micron Technology Q1 2009 Micron Technology Earnings Release -$ 0.43 n/a -$ 0.34 23-Dec
AM American Greetings Corp. Q3 2009 American Greetings Corp. Earnings Release $ 0.52 n/a $ 0.53 23-Dec BMO
FSII FSI International Q1 2009 FSI International Earnings Release -$ 0.15 n/a -$ 0.07 23-Dec

Далее отчетностей нет вплоть до 06.01.09

 

Шорты по JNY (от 4,3$) и OMC (от 25,5). По первому потенциал до первой и единственной цели около 50%...

 

UTIW, дневка

 

Поздравляю всех наших трейдеров с наступившим 2009 годом!!!!
Желаю всем сил, терпения и побольше удачных сделок!!!!! :tatice_06:

Открываемся в "красненьком", так быстро побежали ввeрх, что забыли, что существует и низ.
Видимо, будем сегодня его обозревать.... :ju:

 

Спасибо, Vento! Вас так же с наступившим!

Во вторник слетели по стопам шорты по JNY и PCAR. Первый слетел условно преодолев уровень стопа на 3 цента (6,29), вчера упали на 7,15% и 3,31% соответственно, тем самым не пройдя сразу предыдущий локальный хай...

CEF short от района 10,6 - ничего
VMW short от района 25,5 - ничего
PAYX short от района 26,6 - ничего
PCAR short от района 25,25 - закрыл неудачно по 31.1 (-27%)
TXT short от района 13,7 - пока неудачно (-12%)
SPLS short от района 16,25 - пока неудачно (-9%)
USMO long от района 10,75 - ничего
MBI short от района 5,5 - ничего
OMC short от района 25,5 - пока неудачно (-7%)

28 ноября писал:

"...Если мы все же сподобимся на двойное дно, то, даже, закрывая шорты по стопам (стопы, как теперь легко видеть, расположены на линии шеи двойного дна), я буду рад началу формирования нового бычьего тренда. Одна лишь заковырка – как бы он не стал очень коротким… совсем… ну то есть два хая и два лоя, пробой второго лоя и оппа… опять даунтренд. Сыграть в новый аптренд после пробоя линии шеи конечно можно будет, но велика опасность непродолжительности этого тренда. К слову он мог бы уложиться как раз до НГ. А потом…. Учитывая, что вход не на дне, а на прорыве , а выход не на хае, а так же по технике, т.е. при окончании тренда, то итоговый % будет крайне мал или отрицателен..."

Примерно так и получилось - вялый, безобъемный короткий аптренда по индексу, причем из треугольника мы так и не вышли вверх на текущий момент. Безусловно часть бумаг на рынке за месяц дали очень хороший ход, но по мне большинство все же до сих пор смотрят вниз. Возможно, но не факт, этот хилый аптренд доживет до 20 января - инаугурации Обамы. В любом случае, я пока так и не нашел достойных возможностей для лонга в бумагах.

Декабрь закончил в убытке (-11,17%). Основными "убытками" оказались JRCC, CAT.

 

Невнимательно посмотрел и купил VIV... Сейчас посмотрел - стремно - всякие "но" и "а вдруг"...



Тем не менее, на месячном графике, вероятнее всего получил развитие новый долгосрочный тренд... Там же можно увидеть тройное дно...

 

Кажется мне, что пойдет она вниз....

 

Vento, пока держится Ручной стоп на закрытие - 11.91.

Вчера отшортил VTR и PVH.

HBAN летит на минимум после понижения оценки и пробития сильной поддержки. Цель - где-то 5.

 

В конце недели во время передышки при падении отшортил RCL, AVP, PFG, MKC и PBG. Вечером напишу подробнее, пока же, судя по всему, движение вниз после возможной паузы на пару сессий восстановится. VIV держится, а HBAN улетел ниже 5$...

ВЫХОД ОТЧЕТНОСТЕЙ НА ТЕКУЩЕЙ НЕДЕЛЕ (Полный список выходящих отчетов, выплаты дивидендов и пр. можно найти здесь: <span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://earnings.com)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://earnings.com)</a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)

BMO - before market open
AMC - after market close

20.01

FRX Forest Laboratories, Inc. Q3 2009 Forest Laboratories, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.75 n/a $ 0.96 20-Jan BMO
STT State Street Corporation Q4 2008 State Street Corporation Earnings Release $ 1.14 n/a $ 1.38 20-Jan
CSX CSX Corporation Q4 2008 CSX Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.91 n/a $ 0.85 20-Jan AMC
PH Parker Hannifin Corp. Q2 2009 Parker Hannifin Corp. Earnings Release $ 0.83 n/a $ 1.23 20-Jan BMO
RF Regions Financial Corp. Q4 2008 Regions Financial Corp. Earnings Release -$ 0.08 n/a $ 0.24 20-Jan BMO
IBM International Business Machines Q4 2008 International Business Machines Earnings Release $ 3.03 n/a $ 2.80 20-Jan

21.01

ABT Abbott Q4 2008 Abbott Earnings Release $ 1.06 n/a $ 0.93 21-Jan BMO
USB U.S. Bancorp Q4 2008 U.S. Bancorp Earnings Release $ 0.22 n/a $ 0.53 21-Jan BMO
SLE Sara Lee Q1 2010 Sara Lee Earnings Release $ 0.21 $ 0.10 $ 0.28 21-Jan
NE Noble Corporation Q4 2008 Noble Corporation Earnings Release $ 1.48 n/a $ 1.29 21-Jan AMC
PGR The Progressive Corporation Q4 2008 The Progressive Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.35 n/a $ 0.31 21-Jan
ATI Allegheny Technologies Q4 2008 Allegheny Technologies Earnings Release $ 0.90 n/a $ 1.45 21-Jan BMO

22.01

ISRG Intuitive Surgical Q4 2008 Intuitive Surgical Earnings Release $ 1.27 n/a $ 1.24 22-Jan
COF Capital One Financial Corp. Q4 2008 Capital One Financial Corp. Earnings Release $ 0.45 n/a $ 0.60 22-Jan AMC
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 2008 Fifth Third Bancorp Earnings Release $ 0.01 n/a $ 0.07 22-Jan BMO
LUV Southwest Airlines Q4 2008 Southwest Airlines Financial Results Release $ 0.05 n/a $ 0.12 22-Jan
CMA Comerica Incorporated Q4 2008 Comerica Incorporated Earnings Release $ 0.24 n/a $ 0.77 22-Jan BMO
STI SunTrust Q4 2008 SunTrust Earnings Release $ 0.09 n/a $ 0.01 22-Jan BMO

23.01

SLB Schlumberger Q4 2008 Schlumberger Earnings Release $ 1.08 n/a $ 1.11 23-Jan BMO
XRX Xerox Corporation Q4 2008 Xerox Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.34 n/a $ 0.41 23-Jan BMO
GE General Electric Q4 2008 General Electric Earnings Release $ 0.37 n/a $ 0.68 23-Jan
HOG Harley-Davidson Q4 2008 Harley-Davidson Earnings Release $ 0.58 n/a $ 0.78 23-Jan BMO
GMT GATX Corporation Q4 2008 GATX Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.59 n/a $ 0.62 23-Jan BMO

16.01

 

MBI выполнил первую цель падением , вторая еще далека – 1,7$

VIV на таком рынке держится, и даже движется вверх к локальному хаю вдоль линии 3. безусловно, страшно стоять в лонге после такого роста, с другой стороны, наиболее вероятно, что это начало нового глобального движения (по месячному и недельному графам). Стоп в районе 11,91.



UTIW зарезал отработку перевернутой головы-плечи, пробив серую поддержку и уровень 12$.



USMO до выходных держался хорошо и даже обновил локальный хай, забравшись выше 12$, но вчера обвалился.

Во вторник отшортил MHK и купил RGLD, однако по второму на вечернем заливе вчера сигнал отменился. Портфель забит бумагами, всего 3 лонга и 16 шортов:

CEF short от района 10,6
VMW short от района 25,5
PAYX short от района 26,6
TXT short от района 13,7
SPLS short от района 16,25
USMO long от района 10,75
MBI short от района 5,5
OMC short от района 25,5
VTR short от района 25,5
VIV long от района 13,3
CPB short от района 28,35
PVH short от района 17,35
RCL short от района 10,45
AVP short от района 21,05
PFG short от района 15,9
MKC short от района 30,3
PBG short от района 19,3
MHK short от района 34,65
RGLD long от района 45,2

Цели по новым бумажкам опишу позже, по старым – те же, в большинстве – локальные минимумы.

 

ВЫХОД ОТЧЕТНОСТЕЙ НА ТЕКУЩЕЙ НЕДЕЛЕ (Полный список выходящих отчетов, выплаты дивидендов и пр. можно найти здесь: <span class='inv'><![CDATA[<noindex>]]></span><a href="http://www.onix-trade.net/forum/go.php?http://earnings.com)" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://earnings.com)</a><span class='inv'><![CDATA[</noindex>]]></span>

SYMBOL COMPANY EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)

BMO - before market open
AMC - after market close

27.01

EMC EMC Corporation Q4 2008 EMC Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.23 n/a $ 0.24 27-Jan BMO
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Q4 2008 Bristol-Myers Squibb Earnings Release $ 0.41 n/a $ 0.33 27-Jan
ALTR Altera Corporation Q4 2008 Altera Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.27 n/a $ 0.20 27-Jan AMC
TLAB Tellabs Q4 2008 Tellabs Earnings Release $ 0.05 n/a $ 0.03 27-Jan BMO
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc Q4 2008 C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc Earnings Release $ 0.52 n/a $ 0.49 27-Jan AMC
WAT Waters Corporation Q4 2008 Waters Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.96 n/a $ 0.98 27-Jan BMO

28.01

QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. Q1 2009 QUALCOMM Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.47 n/a $ 0.52 28-Jan 4:00 PM
BA The Boeing Company Q4 2008 The Boeing Company Earnings Release $ 0.78 n/a $ 1.35 28-Jan BMO
SYMC Symantec Q3 2009 Symantec Earnings Release $ 0.32 n/a $ 0.33 28-Jan AMC
TER Teradyne Inc. Q4 2008 Teradyne Inc. Earnings Release -$ 0.13 n/a $ 0.09 28-Jan AMC
CTXS Citrix Systems Q4 2008 Citrix Systems Earnings Release $ 0.47 n/a $ 0.49 28-Jan AMC
BSX Boston Scientific Corporation Q4 2008 Boston Scientific Corporation Earnings Release $ 0.13 n/a $ 0.12 28-Jan AMC

29.01

WYE Wyeth Q4 2008 Wyeth Earnings Release $ 0.79 n/a $ 0.78 29-Jan BMO
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Q4 2008 Amazon.com, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.39 n/a $ 0.48 29-Jan
MO Altria Group, Inc. Q4 2008 Altria Group, Inc. Earnings Release $ 0.37 n/a $ 1.00 29-Jan BMO
CA CA Q3 2009 CA Earnings Release $ 0.38 n/a $ 0.36 29-Jan BMO
IP International Paper Co. Q4 2008 International Paper Co. Earnings Release $ 0.22 n/a $ 0.69 29-Jan BMO
EK Eastman Kodak Company Q4 2008 Eastman Kodak Company Earnings Release $ 0.21 n/a $ 0.40 29-Jan BMO

30.01

XOM ExxonMobil Corporation Q4 2008 Exxon Mobil Corporation Earnings Release $ 1.47 n/a $ 2.13 30-Jan
PG Procter & Gamble Company Q2 2009 Procter & Gamble Company Earnings Release $ 1.58 n/a $ 0.98 30-Jan BMO
HON Honeywell Q4 2008 Honeywell Earnings Release $ 0.97 n/a $ 0.91 30-Jan BMO
GCI Gannett Q4 2008 Gannett Earnings Release $ 0.82 n/a $ 1.28 30-Jan BMO
CVX Chevron Q4 2008 Chevron Earnings Release $ 1.81 n/a $ 2.25 30-Jan BMO
SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. Q4 2008 Simon Property Group, Inc. Earnings Release $ 1.86 n/a $ 1.76 30-Jan BMO

 

Совершенно нет времени на рынок. Вчера по стопу слетел шорт по CPB (около -5-6%), сегодняпри таком рынке умудрился слететь шорт по стопу по MKC... Сегодня крайне порадовали TXT (-31%), на отчетности сделавший 1-ую цель и вышедший из длиннющей консолидации, RCL (еще и вчера) - на ужасной отчетности, правда в конце вытянули из -20% в -13%, и RGLD (+6,5%).
Вчера были сигналы на лонг в таких бумажках, как ACI, AMCC, DIOD, JRCC, MDRX, TBSI, но играть в них я не решился, тем более, что сегодня часть из них сильно усвистели вниз, кто-то даже под 10%.
Завтра последний день месяца, что ж, посмотрим. что он нам принесет

27.01


28.01


29.01

 

Нет времени на писанину. Скажу только, что в пятницу RCL достойно выполнил свою цель и дал заработать около 40% с шорта. TXT приостановил падение, надеюсь ненадолго. RGLD и VIX стабильны, USMO какой-то канал рисует что ли - даже граф не смотрел - просто болтается между 10,5-12.

Не могу не процетировать запись из одного блога. Речь идет о том. что за последние 3 месяца в бумагах фин сектора сильно выросли шорт-позы. Много знакомых тикеров, а из текущих поз узрел PFG.

<!--coloro:#696969--><span style="color:#696969"><!--/coloro-->If you are an avid short seller, the financial sector is of particular interest. I did some research on short interest levels for various financial-related industries and, as a whole, the sector's short interest level was down 3% (as of Jan 15th). The industries researched are the 1) broker-dealers, large banks, 2) securities processors, 3) regional banks, 4) online brokers, 5) specialty/mortgage finance, 6) life insurance, 7) asset management, 8) p&c insurance, and 9) reinsurance.

The largest increase in short interest came from the securities processors, up +42% (partially thanks to STT: +86%). The runners up were the broker-dealers and large banks, up 8%. Next came asset management with a +4% increase. Life insurance saw a 0% increase, and all other sub-sectors saw a decrease in short interest (regional banks: -3%, reinsurance: -3%, speciality/mortgage finance: -5%, p&c insurance: -6%, online brokers: -7%).

Interestingly, when analyzing the days to cover, the regional banks, clumped together as an aggregate, will take 7 days to cover. The next longest is the speciality/mortgage finance with 3.6 days to cover. The shortest time belongs to the broker-dealers and large banks with 0.9 days to cover. Short interest (as a % of the float) is 8.9% for both the regional banks and speciality/mortgage finance. All others came in between 1.6% to 3.9%.

Furthermore, looking at a 1-month price change, the regional banks lost -13%, the most of any sub-sector. The second largest losing sub-sector was specialty/mortgage finance (-6%). Looking at a 3-month price change, the broker-dealers and large banks lost -36% and the regional banks lost -32%. Looking at a 6-month price change, the regional banks are the top dogs with a +1%. I believe that the regional banks have a huge potential for profit on the short side. They still have more room to fall. A lot more.

I am more inclined to short the regional banks strictly because of the fact the regional, community banks with smaller asset sizes are not "too bit to fail". In fact, many of these banks near inevitable failure don't even make headlines in the news. It's obvious that size does matter in this huge bailout game. The only threat to short sellers is if a larger bank decides to acquire one of these banks, well then, your short position is screwed.

However, large institutions are in trouble themselves, struggling with capital and liquidity and digesting their previous acquisitions. These guys do not know what came with every deal. With BAC acquiring Tangelo's Countrywide and Mr. Commode's Merrill, and JPM acquiring Bear and WaMu, and other institutions going on acquisition binge in 2008, the interest and the ability to acquire more banks has become much more difficult. Acquisitions will be placed on hold until all of these so-called "smart" people figure out what's going on.

Let's break this down by sub-sector, individual firms, and so forth:

1) Broker-dealers and large banks. These are the pillars of a crumbling world of finance which include names such as C, JPM, GS, MS, etc. They also include smaller firms such as COWN, RJF, JEF, PJC. After MS, C had the largest increase in short interest (+14%). JPM and GS saw an increase of +1% and +2%, respectively. In the current 3-month period, MS has the largest increase in short interest, currently at +154% with a 5.8% short interest (as a % of float). Over 10% of RJF and JEF's float is short.

2) Securities processors. This group includes STT, NTRS, BK, among others. In a one-month period, this group saw the largest spike in short interest with +86% for STT, +42% for NTRS, and +35% for BK. Interestingly, only 2.1% of STT's float is short with 1.9 days to cover.

3) Regional banks. This is a huge group. The companies with the largest increase in short interest are STI (+21%), CBSH (+50%), CFR (+31%), VLY (+81%), MTB (+19%), and many more that are currently under enormous pressure. The small cap regional banks especially heavily shorted - around 50% of them with over 10 days to cover. Out of the large cap regionals, BBT has the largest % increase in short interest at +9%.

4) Online brokers. You might use one of the following: SCHW, ETFC, AMTD, OXPS. This group includes market structure such as CME, ICE, ITG, NDAQ, MKTX, NYX, MF, NITE, PNSN, GFIG, among others. Out of this sub-sector, AMTD and ITG saw the largest % increases in short interest with +51% and +52%, respectively. All others saw declines, except NITE (+6%) and SCHW (no change). ETFC currently has 14.4% of it's float shorted with 8.5 days to cover and MF has 14.8% of it's float shorted with 8.7 days to cover, the two largest of the sub-sector.

5) Specialty/Mortgage finance. This group includes ACF, AXP, MA, SLM, DFS, V, CSE, COF, CIT, FED, HCBK, GKK, KFN, NRF, SFI, CRE, NLY, CIM, etc. P.O.S. companies such as FRE and FNM can be ignored because they've become black holes sucking all of the money out of the system. CIT saw the largest decrease in short interest with a -30% change, however, 8.9% of their float is still short. CIM saw the largest increase with +129%, but only 1.8% of it's float is short. NLY is the second largest gainer with +32%. The largest short interest (as a % of float) belongs to FED with +28.1%.

6) Life insurance. Everyone needs it, but that doesn't mean buy their stocks, people! AIG is a good example of what not to buy. Also in this sub-sector: HIG, MET, PFG, PRU, TMK, CNO, GNW, AFL, AMP, SFG, PNX, RGA, LNC, PL, etc. The largest short increases go to LNC and PFG, both with a +21% increase. Looking at the 3-month % change, about half of these names saw a +100% increase or more in short interest.

7) Asset management. Names such as LM, TROW, FIG, BLK, CLMS, AMG, AB, IVZ, JNS, EV, WDR, OZM, BEN, and FII should come to mind. WDR saw an increase of +131%, followed by FII with +61%, and JNS with +42%. As an aggregate, this seb-sector's short interest increased by 3.7% or 90 bps. Even FII, a defensive stock in bear markets with 85% of their funds in MMs, is under pressure from reduced fees. Americans just don't want idiots managing their money anymore.

8) P&C insurance. There seems to be this perception that pricing has bottomed for property and casualty insurance, or that valuations for this sub-sector is extremely low. Hell, they could get even lower. This group includes ACE, AIZ, BRK.A, NAVG, CB, RLI, WRB, TRV, XL, ALL, PGR, etc. With the exception of AIZ (+88%) and p&c brokers (AOC, MMC, WSH), this sub-sector has seen decreases in short interest across the board with a -15% median decrease.

9) Reinsurance. This group includes ACGL, PTP, RNR, RE, PRE, MRH, ENH, AHL, etc. This group saw a -3% decline in short interest (As a whole), which is much better than a +45% increase looking at the 6-month change. This sector is actually up +6% (1-month % price change).

Compare this with the median 1-month % price change with p&c insurance (-2%), asset management (+2%), life insurance (+2%), specialty/mortgage finance (-6%), securities processors (+7%), online brokers (+2%), regionals (-13%), and the broker-dealers and alrge banks (-3%). The regionals are horrible.

I see shorting opportunities in the regionals. There are so many of them out there.<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc-->